Kenya is bracing for an above-average October–December (OND) rainfall season, with a strengthening El Niño expected to bring wetter conditions across much of the country, a forecast that carries significant implications for potato farmers.
The outlook was released following the 13th National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF13), held in Nairobi from 24th to 26th August 2026. The forum, convened by the Kenya Meteorological Department in partnership with the United Nations, IGAD, Mercy Corps and the Kenya Red Cross Society, brought together government agencies, development partners, disaster management organizations and private-sector stakeholders to strengthen preparedness and early action ahead of the rainy season.
The National Potato Council of Kenya (NPCK) participated in the forum as part of efforts to strengthen the flow of climate information to potato farmers. NPCK is finalizing a partnership with the Kenya Meteorological Department to disseminate weather forecasts through Viazi Soko, its digital platform serving farmers across Kenya’s potato-growing regions.
If implemented as planned, the partnership could extend timely weather information to more than 260,000 potato farmers, helping them make informed decisions on planting, crop protection and other farm operations ahead of changing weather conditions.
The 2026 OND outlook is being shaped by a strengthening El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean. The Niño 3.4 index, a key measure of El Niño conditions, rose to 2.03°C in July after recording a seasonal mean of 1.51°C between May and July. By the week of 12th August, the index had reached 2.7°C, pointing to a potentially strong El Niño season.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another climate factor influencing East African rainfall, remained neutral as of late August. However, forecasters expect it to move into a positive phase in September, although the timing and strength of the shift remain uncertain.
For potato-growing areas, the forecast points to above-average rainfall across much of the country, including major production counties such as Nyandarua, Meru, Nyeri, Kiambu, Nakuru, Narok, Bomet, Kericho and Elgeyo Marakwet.
The rains are expected to begin at different times depending on the region. Parts of the western Rift Valley and western Kenya are expected to experience rainfall from September, while much of the central highlands, including Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu and Tharaka-Nithi, are expected to receive the onset of the OND rains in the second or third week of October.
For potato farmers, the forecast presents both an opportunity and a warning.
Adequate and well-distributed rainfall can support crop establishment and improve yields, particularly in Kenya’s highland potato-growing areas. However, excessive moisture can quickly become a challenge. Waterlogged soils can affect tuber development, while heavy rains on sloping farms may increase soil erosion and nutrient loss.
Wet conditions can also create a favourable environment for late blight, one of the most destructive diseases affecting potato production. Farmers will therefore need to pay close attention to weather forecasts, field conditions and early signs of disease, while adopting appropriate crop protection and soil and water management practices.
The emphasis on early action at NCOF13 therefore comes at a critical time for the potato sector. For farmers, access to timely and location-specific weather information could make the difference between simply receiving a rainfall forecast and being able to act on it.
Through the planned collaboration with the Kenya Meteorological Department, NPCK seeks to bridge that gap by bringing climate information closer to farmers through a platform they can readily access.
As the OND season approaches, the message from the climate outlook is clear: preparedness will be essential. For Kenya’s potato farmers, understanding when and how the rains are likely to arrive will be just as important as the rains themselves.
